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This Is Not the V-shaped Recovery You Were Hoping For
Do not let the data fool you—more pain is on the way
Things are starting to look up for the US economy, but after months of lockdowns and vain economic reboots, are we really seeing the start of the sustained recovery we have all been hoping for? Looking ahead to what the September quarter has in store, while there have been some key data releases that can give us some idea of how the economy is tracking, we should be placing our hopes in the figures. There is simply too much uncertainty for any serious judgement to be made.
The coronavirus has seen the sharpest contraction in US GDP in post-war history. The hope is that such a precipitous decline will be followed by an equally steep recovery. Given the patchwork quilt of rules and regulations adopted by various states across the country, assessing the nationwide economic impact is an incredibly fraught task. As cases spike and hotspots develop in certain pockets, finding a pattern to the outbreaks and identifying their causes has health authorities working in overdrive. States that previously began opening up their economies have backed off, fearing that a resurgence in cases could quickly see health resources overwhelmed if things get out of control.
